财务与会计学术论坛第七十二期

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题目: Analyst Forecast Inefficiency in Reaction to Earnings News: Cognitive Bias vs. Economic Incentives 演讲者:Chansog (Francis) Kim, Associate Professor of Accounting, City University of Hong Kong 时间: 2008年5月16日(星期五)3:00—4:30 PM 地点: 嘉庚二513 参加者: 对会计研究有兴趣的广大师生 主持人: 强欣荣老师 论文摘要: This study examines whether and to what degree analyst forecast optimism and misreaction to earnings news are driven by cognitive bias and/or economic incentives, such as the incentive to gain access to insider information, to create investment banking business for their employers and to boost trading. We find that I/B/E/S analysts’ initial forecasts after annual earnings announcement are optimistic and analysts overreact (underreact) to good (bad) news in prior-year earnings changes. Both analysts’ optimism and inefficient reaction to different states of earnings news become more pronounced as information uncertainty increases. We do not find significant differences in misreactions to earnings news between Value Line and I/B/E/S analyst forecasts. Optimism is significantly lower in the Value Line forecasts than in I/B/E/S forecasts. The findings are consistent with the notion that broker-analysts specific economic incentives such as the incentives to boost trading and to promote investment-banking are mostly reflected in their forecast optimism, not in their misreaction to earnings news. Finally we find no evidence of significant misreaction to earnings news post-Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD), whereas we still observe a significant, albeit reduced, optimism post-FD, particularly when uncertainty is high. In sum these results are more consistent with the notion that analyst forecast misreaction to earnings news pre-FD was driven by analysts’ incentives to maintain access to managerial information. However, optimistic bias seems to be driven by both economic incentives and cognitive bias. 论文作者简介: Prof. Kim received his B.A. degree in Economics from Sogang University Korea, MBA from Western Illinois University, and Ph.D. degree in Accounting from Baruch College of City University of New York. His research interest includes financial accounting, management accounting and international accounting.