时间：2026年9月4日（周五）15:00-16:30

地点：厦门大学嘉庚二（成枫楼）512室

讲座嘉宾：林秉旋

讲座题目：Hiding in the Herd? Political Uncertainty and Strategic Risk Attribution in Disclosures

内容简要：

In the United States, mandatory reporting and market concerns force managers to speak even during periods of turmoil. We examine how managers respond to this constraint by changing the locus of risk attribution in Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Using large language model embeddings and supervised neural network learning, we construct a disclosure-implied systematic risk share (SRS) that links narrative semantics to the systematic component of post-disclosure return variance. We find that political uncertainty causes a “hiding in the herd” response, where managers increasingly attribute risk to market-wide headwinds rather than firm-specific factors.

We validate that SRS tracks the structural source of risk using a mirror-image test: when political shocks are firm-specific (i.e., the U.S. -China trade war), attribution shifts to idiosyncratic factors, thereby reducing SRS. The use of systematic attribution is exacerbated by short-term reporting pressure and poor monitoring and is mainly driven by salient policy debates in trade and healthcare.

主持人：刘峰  会计发展研究中心主任/会计学系教授

主办单位

厦门大学会计发展研究中心、厦门大学会计学系、

厦门大学会计学系MPAcc中心

支持项目  冠亚厦门大学会计学系发展基金